NFL Mock Draft #1 p.1-16

Oakland Raiders

JaMarcus Russell (QB)

At this point, it's really hard to see Oakland going in a different direction. I don't think they should even think about trading down, because as long as they don't screw it up, they can get a serious franchise player (Russell, Quinn or Johnson), with all three playing a marquee position a la Al Davis. Regardless of whether they keep or trade Randy Moss, I think Davis may have learnt his lesson about going with terrible quarterbacks (incidentally, people who thought Moss turns anyone into a Pro Bowl QB have been proven wrong), so I think the Raiders will go with a quarterback. I think they've invested too much in their offensive line thus far (Robert Gallery a few years ago) to really want to invest another top three pick in the line, and with a fairly good receiver corps and running corps, this is the pick. Now the question becomes either Russell or Quinn, and the best analogy here is last year, between Vince Young and Matt Leinart. Quinn is the better-tested quarterback, in my opinion, who'll have a more solid immediate impact but may never become a Peyton Manning, whereas Russell mirrors Vince Young, but with less explosiveness and more polish. I don't think you can really go wrong with Russell, then, but of course that was the case with Ryan Leaf. Raiders pick Russell, and I seriously, seriously doubt this pick'll change.

Detroit Lions

Brady Quinn (QB)

Scratch Johnson off your list, as they already signed Shaun McDonald from the Rams, and I think Matt Millen might have learnt to ease off that wide receiver pedestal. Now, there's still a 5% chance he becomes so enamoured with the talent of Johnson and goes for him, but lets assume there's an inkling of intelligence here, mmkay? They traded for George Foster from Denver, who won't immediately fix the offensive line issues, but he'll help. They replaced Dre Bly to the best of their abilities by snagging Travis Fisher from the Rams also. They signed two defensive ends, including DeWayne White from the Bucs. And they grabbed three insurance running backs in case Kevin Jones' injury takes him out. So what's left? Jon Kitna's still their starting quarterback. I think the Lions will ride the Mike Martz train and take a good, solid, intelligent quarterback in Brady Quinn, with the confidence that Martz can pull out the best in him and train him up to be their quarterback of the future. And this time, Quinn'll be a less risky pick due to his experience, the style of offence he was trained in (Charlie Weis) and because he's not a pick due to potential. They may still pick Joe Thomas, but I'd say Quinn's the bigger priority right now.

Cleveland Browns

Joe Thomas (T)

This is one pick that might be traded down. I think Phil Savage would prefer a ~8 pick to grab someone like Alan Branch, to help out with the front 3 on their defence. As it is, he's too smart to reach, and so he'll go for the value pick if he stands pat by going with Joe Thomas, which isn't really a loss at all. While their need on defensive line is greater, they also have issues with their offensive line, although last year that was due to injury. Grabbing Joe Thomas may be redundant if they believe their offensive linemen will return healthy (which they probably will), and will give them an 'over-upgrade' of sorts on that line (since they have bigger issues elsewhere), but again, it's not a terrible thing to have too much of. This'll give them better returns of Jamal Lewis (who absolutely need an offensive line in front of him) and improve the stock of the past few top-tier picks they've spent (Frye, Winslow and Edwards).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Calvin Johnson (WR)

To be honest, the smart thing would be either to trade down or something, but this is almost a lock as Calvin Johnson. I don't think a Wide Receiver is going to change this team's fortunes at all, but having a superstar like Johnson can't hurt attendance, plus Gruden is probably wetting his pants dreaming up plays for a 6-5 4.3 player. Not really much to say here, fortunately or unfortunately, as this pick is almost a lock to happen...

Arizona Cardinals

Gaines Adams (DE)

The Cards have pressing needs at offensive line, obviously, as well as their general defence. The Cards were actually 16^th in the NFL in rushing defence, while a terrible 30^th in passing defence, which makes it clear which one they actually need more help in. I don't know how good of a run stopper Adams is, but I'm sure he'll be able to help their pass rush. I think they'd prefer to grab a linebacker or a defensive back, though, and if they can get trade offers they might entertain the thought of moving down in order to plug two holes instead of just one, since their need for Adams isn't that great.

Washington Redskins

Alan Branch (DT)

The Skins have a first round pick? They'll go defence again and grab Alan Branch, as their defence let them down last season. Gregg Williams' magic ran out with the lack of a pass rush from their line, and given how he'd like to be able to fake blitzes (instead of it being obvious he's going to have to blitz to put any pressure), Branch will be their man. This is a great pick for the Skins, as they get to solidify their biggest need with an impact player, and even if Branch doesn't fall here the likelihood is either he or Adams'll be here. The chances of this pick being traded are slim at best.

Minnesota Vikings

Jamaal Anderson (DE)
How far are the Vikings willing to reach for their number one reach? Probably not that far. As much as they need Dwayne Jarrett, I don't see them using this particular pick to reach down ~10 spots for him. Expect some massive shopping, so they can move down some. They may have a taker. As it is, we'll assume they stay, and if they do, they'll be forced to go with Jamaal Anderson, as they have four glaring needs in this order: WR, OL, DE and CB. Erasmus James is coming back this year, though, so the Vikings would seriously prefer to trade down to grab a WR. Anderson is the best 'value' pick for the Vikings right now, as they simply do not have much of a need for other positions at this draft spot...

Houston Texans

Levi Brown (T)

Years too late, the Texans finally fill one of their gaping holes at OL with Levi Brown. It's a bit of a “reach” pick in regards to Browns' value, but the lack of top-tier linemen annually as well the absolute pressing need for someone like Brown will toss him to the Texans. Not to say this is a complete reach, however, as other teams may very well have taken a flier on Brown within the next few picks anyways, but reports say he's not truly top-10 material.

Miami Dolphins

Leon Hall (CB)

The Dolphins have a lot of needs and a lot of holes to fill. They plugged one in with the human blackjack puncher... I mean Joey Porter. New head coach Cam Cameron might take a look at his players and decide that he'll roll the dice with the talent he has on offence, namely Culpepper, Chambers and Ronnie Brown, given how he can't get an offensive lineman anymore (Houston takes Brown above). The next pressing need on defence is the defensive backs, and Leon Hall makes the most sense here, as they have almost no one there right now.

Atlanta Falcons

LaRon Landry (S)
They have their pickings at Safety, which is their number one need, which bodes well for the Falcons. The question is whether they go with the polished, semi-proven Landry or rising Reggie Nelson. I think the Falcons will overlook the workout numbers and take the proven commodity in Landry, who's a better player than his brother, the starting safety for the Ravens. Not a bad defence, that.

San Francisco 49ers

Amobi Okoye
A very interesting pick that screams to get traded. The 49ers have three pressing needs: wide receiver, defensive back and defensive tackle. Of these, particularly with the release of Antonio Bryant, WR stands out the most. However, with Norv Turner no longer there, Nolan Ryan may turn back towards his forte, defence. Ted Ginn Jr. is a huge flashing pick, but I think Ryan'll go with Okoye, who they were high on anyways, in order to solidify their defense.

Buffalo Bills

Adrian Peterson (RB)
It seems like every few years the Bills draft a running back. This time they draft Adrian Peterson to replace the traded Willis McGahee. The jury is out for whether Peterson is durable enough, particularly with a power running game, but this does fill that hole quite well. Patrick Willis is also a potential replacement, given the loss of London Fletcher, as defence would be a high priority due to them also losing Nate Clements. Still, Ralph Wilson needs to fill seats, and I think AP would be a decent pick to be an attraction at the very least.

St. Louis Rams
Adam Carriker (DE/DT)

Needing to shore up their defence (as always), the Rams'll go with Carriker, whose versatility allows the Rams some freedom with their relatively thin defensive line. They also have a need at linebacker, but Willis is an ILB, and while 'Puz' would not be too much of a reach here, I think they may decide to go with the line instead. 31^st in run defence would do that to you.

Carolina Panthers

Patrick Willis (ILB)
At the very least, Willis would provide some depth for their injury-prone front-seven. But the image is that he'll pull them even further forward, solidifying their defence and needing them to require less of Dan Morgan. Given their loss of Witherspoon last year and the concern of Dan Morgan, this seems like a sure pick if Willis falls this far (as he likely will).

Pittsburgh Steelers

Darrell Revis (CB)
The loss of Joey Porter may actually signify a de-emphasis on the 3-4 for the switch to Cover 2, so despite panic attacks the Steelers have a high probability of ignoring the linebacker slot for a while. What's a problem, however, is their coverage, as has been for a while. Leon Hall is long gone, but they can still reach for Revis, given how this is a position of need. This is another trade-bait pick, as there likely isn't an immediate impact player that'll change the Steelers' fortunes, and they'd probably prefer to trade down for more picks to plug more holes. However bearing in mind that the team is just a year removed from winning the Super Bowl and they haven't lost that many players, one player like Revis may simply be the difference. We'll see. 'Puz' is an option here if they decide to fill the gap left by Porter.

Green Bay Packers

Marshawn Lynch (RB)
The loss of Ahman Green leaves them with basically no viable workhorse running back, which is a bad idea. Nothing really to say here, except that they might go with Ted Ginn Jr. instead.